Social Sciences, asked by debasissahu999, 1 year ago

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Answered by GRVMehta
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Anyone who has experienced a major earthquake, such as the Kobe Earthquake that struck western Japan in 1995, or the March 2011 earthquake and tsunami that devastated northeastern Japan, is aware of their frightening power. What is much harder to know is when the next big quake will occur near you.

In seismically active Japan, the government calculates and publishes the odds of a major temblor occurring in any one place using various methods, but the predictions are not always consistent -- with good reason.

Margin of error

In the early hours of April 16, a magnitude-7.3 earthquake hit the southern Japanese prefecture of Kumamoto. The temblor occurred along the Futagawa fault. Active faults -- cracks in the earth's crust -- are constantly being pushed and pulled by the surrounding tectonic plates. When the stress builds beyond the breaking point, the plates slip suddenly, causing an earthquake.

The government's Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion put the likelihood of a magnitude-7 or -8 earthquake occurring in the next 30 years in the area where Kumamoto earthquake took place at between "nearly zero and 0.9%." The research group publishes long-term predictions for big earthquakes by studying 97 major active faults across the country. Their predictions are based on the frequency of earthquakes at a given point, and when the most recent quake has occurred.


GRVMehta: tnx
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