SCIENCE BEHIND COVID-19
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As many of us know by now, coronaviruses are a group of closely related viruses that cause a wide range of illness, from a common cold to more serious diseases of recent years, such as SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome).
COVID-19 is a “novel” form of the coronavirus, which means that it’s a completely new disease and has never been catalogued among other known viruses. Scientists are quickly working to gather data on the disease to investigate its origins, track its spread and come up with treatment options.
Here’s the science behind the pandemic:
Where it comes from
Most newly emerging viruses circulate in an animal habitat and then adapt and evolve to ultimately enter the human population. The source of COVID-19 is believed to be a market in Wuhan, China which sold both dead and live animals.
How quickly it spreads
Each virus spreads at a different rate, which scientists track by assigning a reproduction number, or R0. The rate is an important concept in epidemiology and is a critical part of public health planning during pandemics, including the 2003 SARS pandemic, 2009 H1N1 (swine flu) pandemic, the 2014 Ebola epidemic and now the COVID-19 pandemic.
For example, measles has one of the highest rates, with an R0 of about 15-18. This means one person with measles will infect 15 to 18 other people. On the other hand, the flu is less infectious, with an R0 of 1.3. Scientists are currently trying to nail down COVID-19’s reproduction number, but estimate it is somewhere between 2 and 3.
“Many viruses replicate very quickly,” said Dr. Jennifer Binning, a virologist at Moffitt Cancer Center. “They produce multiple copies of themselves and this helps them adapt to new situations and deal with different pressures such as jumping to a new host or developing drug resistance.”
COVID-19 is spread person-to-person between people in close contact with each other and through respiratory droplets produced when someone sneezes or coughs. People are more contagious while showing symptoms; transmission of the virus before symptoms present is possible but unlikely, according to the Centers for Disease Control.
“Just because you’re not showing symptoms does not mean that you are not infected,” said Binning. “As long as you’re infected that means the virus is replicating inside of you, and if you’re producing more virus then you’re in a position where you could transfer it to another human being.”
A new study published in the New England Journal of Medicine analyzed how long the virus that causes COVID-19 can live in the air and on surfaces. It was more stable on plastic and stainless steel than on copper and cardboard. Viable virus was detected up to 72 hours after application to plastic and up to 48 hours on stainless steel. On copper, the virus was not detected after four hours and it wasn’t present on cardboard after 24 hours. Researchers also concluded that transmission is possible through the air and fomite—objects such as clothes, utensils and furniture.
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"Just because you’re not showing symptoms does not mean that you are not infected,” said Binning. “As long as you’re infected that means the virus is replicating inside of you, and if you’re producing more virus then you’re in a position where you could transfer it to another human being."
- Dr. Jennifer Binning, virologist
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