Strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats of India's defence and foreign policy vis-à-vis the challenge of two front war
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In the last century, Indian strategic thinking was overwhelmingly focused on Pakistan and the security considerations emanating from there. However, in recent decades India’s military intelligentsia is firm on the view that a collusive China-Pakistan military threat is a real possibility.
The Chinese intrusions in Ladakh in May 2020 and the deadlock in negotiations have now made the Chinese military threat more apparent and real. But some media reports had indicated that Pakistan had moved 20,000 troops into Gilgit-Baltistan, matching the Chinese deployments in Eastern Ladakh.
Given this, it would be prudent for India to be ready for a two-front threat.
Growing China-Pakistan Military Links
The Sino-Pakistan relationship is nothing new, but it has far serious implications today than perhaps ever before.
China has always looked at Pakistan as a counter to India’s influence in South Asia.
China, through its chequebook diplomacy, wants to exercise this hegemony over the South-Asian neighbours. In this pursuit, China would want to drain India’s economic resources on the border confrontation.
Thus, a two-front war scenario can be a strategy by China to undermine India’s role in its neighbourhood.
Over the years, the ties between the China & Pakistan countries have strengthened and there is a great deal of alignment in their strategic thinking.
This can be understood by the fact that China has made massive investments in Pakistan via the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor.
Apart from this, military cooperation is growing, with China accounting for 73% of the total arms imports of Pakistan between 2015-2019.
India & Issues Related to Two-front War Scenario
Threat to Regional Peace: A two-front war scenario that might lead to a full-blown war between three nuclear-armed states.
Dilemmas For India: A two-front conflict presents the Indian military with two dilemmas — of resources and strategy.
Resources: A major decision will be the quantum of resources to be allocated for the two-front attack scenario.
For example, according to some estimates that about 60 combat squadrons are needed to deal with a serious two-front threat. This is double the number of squadrons currently with the Indian Air Force (IAF).
Strategy: If a majority of the assets of the Indian Army and the Indian Air Force are sent towards the northern border, it will require the military to rethink its strategy for the western border.
Also, adopting a more offensive strategy against Pakistan could draw limited resources into a wider conflict.
Economic Constraints: Capability building also requires a serious debate, particularly in view of the fact that the country’s economic situation will not permit any significant increase in the Defence Budget for the foreseeable future.
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