Summarise this paragraph. over-centralised England and set sweeping eight-year
targets against which departments will be judged each year. There are useful
initiatives such as the three innovation clusters to push science spending outside
the south.
But while few can doubt the ambition, there are four major reasons for a serious
dose of realism. They are the Treasury, the weakness of the prime minister, the
costs of the pandemic and the short-termism of politicians and the public.
The biggest issue is the Treasury, which squats like a complacent toad over all
policy. Its groupthink, innate fiscal orthodoxy and general resistance to the
devolution have long made it a block to progress.
Those around Gove talk about the need to “rewire the blob”. So far this mainly
means moving civil servants out of London. But Whitehall will never be rewired
until the Treasury is reformed. Johnson’s former strategist Dominic Cummings
saw this when he schemed to make Rishi Sunak chancellor, with a joint policy unit
reporting to him in Number 10, and tried to oust the top official. But the
department has absorbed the already fiscally conservative chancellor.
The Treasury’s reluctance to embrace the mission is obvious. It has been
ungenerous on skills, though some also blame a reluctance in the Department for
Education to devolve powers. Investment in further education will be lower in
2025 than it was in 2010. Even some infrastructure goals are unambitious: the
2030 nationwide broadband goal is a 4G target.
The Treasury supports investing in cities but is less enthused about towns. It’s
centralising instincts mean it blocked new tax powers for mayors. Gove lost a fight
to win them some control over commercial property taxes. Funding pots remain
mostly governed by the centre, while pilot schemes to give extra powers to the
Greater Manchester and West Midlands mayors are still “a blank sheet”, according
to one minister. Another figure with close knowledge of Sunak’s Treasury says the chancellor and
his department are still too much “finance directors rather than venture
capitalists”. Previous efforts to build rival ministries have always failed; the
department which controls the money carries the day. The creation of Gove’s
Department for Levelling Up is itself testimony to the inability of other ministers,
notably the business department to drive strategy, says another.
Changing the Treasury requires a chancellor ready to take it on from the inside.
Gove is the only minister temperamentally and intellectually suited to the task, but
one colleague observes ruefully that “Michael is innumerate”.
The second obstacle is the weakness of the prime minister. Johnson is not strong
enough to take on the Treasury, even if he had a mind to do so. Nor are ministers
feeling the pressure Gove would wish if they are to prioritise a central strategy over
their own objectives. Tories are under immediate political pressure, not least over
the economy. For all the talk of levelling up, strategists are as obsessed with
stopping asylum seekers crossing the Channel. No new leader will abandon
levelling up, but a mission of such substance needs more than shallow support.
Third, Covid has wrecked the public finances. Money has been made available, not
least for research and development, but anything not covered in last year’s public
spending round must be funded from existing budgets. And these pressures are not
about to ease. Inflation will lead to higher public sector wage demands and calls to ease the financial burdens on voters. These are urgent political priorities.
The final challenge is political short-termism. Levelling up is the work of a
generation but both politicians and voters will demand visible progress before the
next election. So a disproportionate effort will go into superficial improvements to
town centres. This matters, but it will ultimately count for little unless the strategy
delivers jobs and money.
Were this white paper followed through, the UK could be transformed. But while
some gains are likely, too much is in hock to an orthodox centralising Treasury,
short-termism and the desire to cut taxes before elections.
The upshot is that Johnson’s big idea is still having to prove itself to the members
of his own government. If it helps deliver the next election, then more money and
ambition may follow. If not, it will be left to others to pick up the paper and start
again.
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