Suppose the Personnel manager of a company wants to introduce a new policy of assessment of employees
of the company for promotion on their jobs and the policy is subject to clearance from the GM. The post of
GM is vacant currently and likely to filled soon by appointment of one of the three deputy GMs. the chances
of policy being implemented are dependent on who is appointed the GM. specifically, the chances of
manager A, B and C of being appointed GM are0.5,0.3 and 0.2 respectively, while the likelihood of policy
being implemented is 0.1, 0.6 and 0.9, resp. with the three. What is the probability that the policy will
eventually be implemented?
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