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How is India testing its population for the new coronavirus? Are states/union territories reporting a higher number of positive cases testing more people?
Let's check it out, through a magnifying glass, which part stands where in this process, individually.
According to the latest available figures, India’s “Testing Per Million (TPM)” ration stands at around 105.
METHODOLOGY
India does not have a central repository to track the testing metrics of all states. The data procured for this analysis per April 12 have been obtained via manual inspection of daily health bulletins, news reports and open-source platforms.
Testing statistics from Telangana, Ladakh and Puducherry are not available and, therefore, not included in this assessment.
The analysis categorises the states into multiple buckets in terms of their population for the year 2020 (2020 estimates from the UN).
Table 1: States classified into buckets based on population
Table 2: Description of Buckets
The key metrics to be analysed here are the total tests conducted (total samples), the number of positives and cases, and the TPM people of a state for coverage.
The states are further categorised into four different QUADRANTS -- or the Qs -- within respective BUCKETS;
States in Q1 are doing better than Q2, and those in Q2 are better off than Q3 and thereafter.
ANALYSIS
Bucket 1:
Bucket 1 consists of smaller states. Most of the North-East states fall under this bucket. The table below shows testing progress as of April 12.
TABLE 3: BUCKET 1 testing stats
The Andaman and Nicobar islands reported the best TPM stats. This is owing to its smaller size, which makes it easier to expand testing coverage.
That said, Andaman and Nicobar also conducted the second-largest number of tests in this bucket. It has have conducted more tests than other states, which are much larger in the bucket.
Figure 1: BUCKET 1 quadrant plot
Andaman and Nicobar occupies Q1 owing to its impressive numbers.
Chandigarh and Himachal Pradesh in Q4 have some work to do in terms of improving their TPM numbers and lowering the number of cases.
Others in Q3 have a very low number of cases. This may or may not be owing to a lack of testing as they have a very low number of TPMs.
Figure 2: Tests v Positives (BUCKET 1)
Chandigarh has the maximum percentage of positives amongst the tested samples. This is a matter of concern as its TPM is not the biggest in this quadrant.
Bucket 2
Bucket 2 consists of medium-sized states that have a population range of 11 to 37 million.
The best states in this bucket are Kerala and Delhi. More so Kerala, which now looks like the only state in India that has managed to bend the curve and successfully treat a large chunk of positive patients.
Delhi is still having a high number of cases on a day-to-day basis.
TABLE 4: BUCKET 2 testing stats
States like Jharkhand and Assam have a woeful TPM. It is important that they scale this up. Given how quickly and easily the virus spreads, the states must ensure that more testing is carried out in the coming days.
Figure 3: BUCKET 2 quadrant plot
Delhi’s situation is also aided by a large number of private testing centres. They amount to a good chunk of their overall testing numbers.
The Nizamuddin cluster, of course, contributed to most of Delhi’s cases.
In brief, Kerala is in the ideal quadrant of high TPM and low cases compared to others in Bucket 2.
Figure 4: Tests v Positives (BUCKET 2)
Jammu and Kashmir and Haryana have a higher number of positives.
Haryana has a TPM of 134 with only 3,905 tests conducted but already has 195 cases as of April 12. That is a high five percent positivity quotient.
Jharkhand is a worry. It is the largest state with the lowest TPM in the bucket.
Bucket 3
Bucket 3 features larger states. The ones that have a population in the range of 43 million-230 million.
Surprisingly, Rajasthan has the best TPM number in this quadrant, followed closely by Maharashtra. The other states are way down below when it comes to the TPMs.
Both these states have tested a lot, with areas in Maharashtra already experiencing community spread and Rajasthan has seen a huge spike in its positives over the last one week.
TABLE 5: BUCKET 3 testing stats
Rajasthan and Maharashtra are in Q1 and Q2 respectively. The rest of the states are in Q3 and no state is in Q4 though Tamil Nadu may soon progress to this dangerous quadrant (Q4).
West Bengal has an abysmally low TPM of 25, which is a cause for concern because of its large population.
The same goes with Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, which have a TPM of 55 and 51 respectively. Considering they are woefully short of even reaching near the national average of around 105, one would hope that this delay in testing does not result in a massive spike in cases across these states.
Karnataka looks to be in a good position as it has an above-average TPM with a low number of cases.
Gujarat is slightly starting to see an increase in its cases in spite of a decent TPM.