The forecasting model identifies the optimal way, but for a variety of reasons, other satisfying options may be selected and acted upon
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Most people view the world as consisting of a large number of alternatives. Futures research evolved as a way of examining the alternative futures and identifying the most probable. Forecasting is designed to help decision making and planning in the present.
Forecasts empower people because their use implies that we can modify variables now to alter (or be prepared for) the future. A prediction is an invitation to introduce change into a system.
There are several assumptions about forecasting:
1. There is no way to state what the future will be with complete certainty. Regardless of the methods that we use there will always be an element of uncertainty until the forecast horizon has come to pass.
2. There will always be blind spots in forecasts. We cannot, for example, forecast completely new technologies for which there are no existing paradigms.
3. Providing forecasts to policy-makers will help them formulate social policy. The new social policy, in turn, will affect the future, thus changing the accuracy of the forecast
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This is false Statement
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