The number will announce a recession when?
Answers
Answer:
As of the employment data from February 2020, the Sahm Recession Indicator was 0.00. This indicates that the current three-month average unemployment rate of 3.53 percent is exactly at its minimum value over the previous 12-month period. This corresponds to row 2 of table 1, which shows the historical frequency of recessions at different time horizons when the Sahm measure is at its current value.
This may seem like a strange time to talk about recessions. GDP growth is strong, and as of April 2019, the unemployment rate stood at 3.6 percent, its lowest level since 1969. We are also experiencing an unusually long economic expansion. The Great Recession officially ended in June of 2009, with continuous private-sector job growth resuming in March 2010. This has resulted in the longest uninterrupted streak of job growth in recorded U.S. economic history.
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