The thing which will never change
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The satisfaction of human beings. Harming someone else for their own needs.
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Houses. From 1957 to 1967, millions of visitors trooped through a plastic UFO-shaped abode at Disneyland called the Monsanto House of the Future. No more were ever built. Since the historic-renovation revival of the 1960s, Americans have settled on circa-1880 architecture as the apotheosis of residential aesthetics.
Pencils. Beginning in 1565, when Swiss physician Conrad Gesner of Zurich first described a pencil as a writing rod held in a wooden case, the pencil underwent a slow development— eraser on the end
Books. Nicholas Negroponte, director of MIT's Media Lab, has predicted that books will soon evolve into bound volumes of paperlike, rewritable leaves. Some books may go this route— labs worldwide are laboring on paper-mimicking interfaces— but traditional books have 500 years of inertia behind them, and no wonder. They are stable, cheap, durable, lightweight, and a hassle to pirate, virtues that e-books of any kind will be hard-pressed to emulate in a mere 20 years.
Cash. Despite frequent predictions that microchip-bearing "smart" cards will soon replace cash, hard currency remains popular, and will remain so. A report issued in October 1999 by Retail Banking Research in Great Britain proclaims, "Cash use is set to continue at similar levels to the present for at least several more decades." Cash appeals to banks, who profit from ATM dispensing fees. It also changes hands easily, tucks neatly into garter belts, and crosses borders without leaving any traces. Money talks, but in the form of cash, it can also keep quiet, and that's an appeal that's unlikely to wane.
Eating utensils. In 1611, Thomas Coryat, an Englishman, brought forks from Italy to Britain, promoted their use, and was ridiculed and considered effeminate for his efforts. But today, the fork and its prehistoric mates, the knife and spoon, constitute a culturally validated food-dispatching triumvirate, according to Petroski, in his book The Evolution of Useful Things. In the Western world, at least, these three basics are likely to attack whatever tofu permutation we're munching two decades from now. And in the East, Petroski predicts, chopsticks will continue to serve as they have for millennia.
Passenger jets. Concept drawings of supersonic, stratospheric aircraft are intoxicating. NASA's High Speed Civil Transport, capable of zooming 300 passengers at 1,500 miles per hour, could go into mass production in 15 years.
Driving. In an August 1997 demonstration, eight cars carried hands-off "drivers" down a seven-mile stretch of the San Diego Freeway. Self-driving cars have obvious advantages: They allow closer spacing and faster speeds and minimize the danger of human
Traffic congestion. Flying cars won't get us out of a jam either. "Cars will still roll along on the ground, and congestion will be a fact of life," predicts Bugliarello. In fact, it will get worse. "Traffic in New York City increased 30 percent this decade, but the city itself has changed very little to accommodate that. The trend will continue."
Noise. Innovations in noise isolation, insulation, and cancellation will do little to ratchet down the incessant hum of mechanized life. "We have not, and will not, be able to abate noise very much," says Bugliarello. "When you talk about more people in tighter environments, noise will be there."
Religion. Since the French Revolution, when Robespierre's followers renamed Notre-Dame Cathedral the "Temple of Reason," freethinkers have predicted the demise of religion. They were, are, and will be wrong. Projections based on United Nations population data indicate that in 2025, the percentage of the world's people who identify themselves as Christians will remain virtually unchanged
Pencils. Beginning in 1565, when Swiss physician Conrad Gesner of Zurich first described a pencil as a writing rod held in a wooden case, the pencil underwent a slow development— eraser on the end
Books. Nicholas Negroponte, director of MIT's Media Lab, has predicted that books will soon evolve into bound volumes of paperlike, rewritable leaves. Some books may go this route— labs worldwide are laboring on paper-mimicking interfaces— but traditional books have 500 years of inertia behind them, and no wonder. They are stable, cheap, durable, lightweight, and a hassle to pirate, virtues that e-books of any kind will be hard-pressed to emulate in a mere 20 years.
Cash. Despite frequent predictions that microchip-bearing "smart" cards will soon replace cash, hard currency remains popular, and will remain so. A report issued in October 1999 by Retail Banking Research in Great Britain proclaims, "Cash use is set to continue at similar levels to the present for at least several more decades." Cash appeals to banks, who profit from ATM dispensing fees. It also changes hands easily, tucks neatly into garter belts, and crosses borders without leaving any traces. Money talks, but in the form of cash, it can also keep quiet, and that's an appeal that's unlikely to wane.
Eating utensils. In 1611, Thomas Coryat, an Englishman, brought forks from Italy to Britain, promoted their use, and was ridiculed and considered effeminate for his efforts. But today, the fork and its prehistoric mates, the knife and spoon, constitute a culturally validated food-dispatching triumvirate, according to Petroski, in his book The Evolution of Useful Things. In the Western world, at least, these three basics are likely to attack whatever tofu permutation we're munching two decades from now. And in the East, Petroski predicts, chopsticks will continue to serve as they have for millennia.
Passenger jets. Concept drawings of supersonic, stratospheric aircraft are intoxicating. NASA's High Speed Civil Transport, capable of zooming 300 passengers at 1,500 miles per hour, could go into mass production in 15 years.
Driving. In an August 1997 demonstration, eight cars carried hands-off "drivers" down a seven-mile stretch of the San Diego Freeway. Self-driving cars have obvious advantages: They allow closer spacing and faster speeds and minimize the danger of human
Traffic congestion. Flying cars won't get us out of a jam either. "Cars will still roll along on the ground, and congestion will be a fact of life," predicts Bugliarello. In fact, it will get worse. "Traffic in New York City increased 30 percent this decade, but the city itself has changed very little to accommodate that. The trend will continue."
Noise. Innovations in noise isolation, insulation, and cancellation will do little to ratchet down the incessant hum of mechanized life. "We have not, and will not, be able to abate noise very much," says Bugliarello. "When you talk about more people in tighter environments, noise will be there."
Religion. Since the French Revolution, when Robespierre's followers renamed Notre-Dame Cathedral the "Temple of Reason," freethinkers have predicted the demise of religion. They were, are, and will be wrong. Projections based on United Nations population data indicate that in 2025, the percentage of the world's people who identify themselves as Christians will remain virtually unchanged
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