ues: The completion of a construction job may be delayed because of a strike. The probabilities are 0.60 that there will be a strike, 0.85 that the construction job will be completed on time if there is no strike, and 0.35 that the construction job will be completed on time if there is a strike. What is the probability that the construction job will be completed on time? *
3 points
Answers
Step-by-step explanation:
Let A be the event that the construction job is completed on time and B be the event that there is strike.
⇒P(B)=0.65
Hence probability that there will be no strike =P(B
′
)
=1−P(B)
=1−0.65
=0.35
∴P(B
′
)=0.35
By the Law of Total Probability we have P(A)=P(B)×P(A∣B)+P(B
′
)×P(A∣B
′
)
Given, P(constructionjobiscompletedwithnostrike)=P(A∣B)=0.80
and P(constructionjobiscompletedwithstrike)=P(A∣B
′
)=0.32
∴P(A)=0.65×0.80+0.35×0.32=0.488
Hence the probability that the construction job will get complete on time is 0.488