uses of probability in industrial research
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These are some examples of the kinds of problems that we can
handle with the methods described in this book:
1. You are a doctor trying to develop a cure for cancer. Currently
you are working on a medicine labeled CCC. You have data
from patients to whom medicine CCC was given. You want to
judge on the basis of those results whether CCC really cures
cancer or whether it is no better than a sugar pill.
2. You are the campaign manager for the Republicrat candidate
for President of the United States. You have the results from a
recent poll taken in New Hampshire. You want to know the
chance that your candidate would win in New Hampshire if
the election were held today.
3. You are the manager and part owner of a small construction
company. You own 20 earthmoving trucks. The chance that
any one truck will break down on any given day is about one
in ten. You want to know the chance on a particular day—
tomorrow—that four or more of them will be out of action.
4. A machine gauged to produce screws 1.000 inches long pro-
duces a batch on Tuesday that averaged 1.010 inches. Given
the record of screws produced by this machine over the past
month, we want to know whether something about the ma-
chine has changed, or whether this unusual batch has occurred
just by chance.
The core of all these problems, and of the others that we will
deal with in this book, is that you want to know the “chance”
or “probability”—different words for the same idea—that
some event will or will not happen, or that something is true
or false. To put it another way, we want to answer questions
about “What is the probability that...?”, given the body of in-
formation that you have in hand.
The question “What is the probability that...?” is usually not
the ultimate question that interests us at a given moment.
handle with the methods described in this book:
1. You are a doctor trying to develop a cure for cancer. Currently
you are working on a medicine labeled CCC. You have data
from patients to whom medicine CCC was given. You want to
judge on the basis of those results whether CCC really cures
cancer or whether it is no better than a sugar pill.
2. You are the campaign manager for the Republicrat candidate
for President of the United States. You have the results from a
recent poll taken in New Hampshire. You want to know the
chance that your candidate would win in New Hampshire if
the election were held today.
3. You are the manager and part owner of a small construction
company. You own 20 earthmoving trucks. The chance that
any one truck will break down on any given day is about one
in ten. You want to know the chance on a particular day—
tomorrow—that four or more of them will be out of action.
4. A machine gauged to produce screws 1.000 inches long pro-
duces a batch on Tuesday that averaged 1.010 inches. Given
the record of screws produced by this machine over the past
month, we want to know whether something about the ma-
chine has changed, or whether this unusual batch has occurred
just by chance.
The core of all these problems, and of the others that we will
deal with in this book, is that you want to know the “chance”
or “probability”—different words for the same idea—that
some event will or will not happen, or that something is true
or false. To put it another way, we want to answer questions
about “What is the probability that...?”, given the body of in-
formation that you have in hand.
The question “What is the probability that...?” is usually not
the ultimate question that interests us at a given moment.
jhanvi128:
thanks
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