What could be the reasons for the fall of NDA government in 2019 lok sabha elections ?
Answers
May people was doubtful about next election result...
Journalists has predicted many reasons for it.
An article of a journalist upon n is is given below
Modi is individual popularity has slid down a bit. The overall government’s popularity has fallen to a much greater scale. I had written extensively about by Modi will NOT lose the 2018 (or 2019, whenever it happens) general elections and despite the fall in popularity, I continue to believe that the situation as I have mentioned in the 2 answers ( link in next paragraph) will prevail. Modi has hedged for any potential loss by neutralizing the threat in Bihar, forming alliance in Tamil Nadu and getting aggressive in Orissa, Bengal, Kerala and the North East
For the electoral landscape, one may read . For the political analysis, refer . Like any other analysis, both of these answers by me have fair bit of assumptions, although those assumptions are reasonable enough. But in politics, more than anything else, it is the momentum which drives anything.
The Roller Coaster -
Fall 1 - In 2015, the NDA III govt. was ended its 3 year hold honeymoon which started with the naming of Modi as the PM candidate. BJP lost Delhi, months later it was humiliated in Bihar with a new formula of Grand Alliance, when Nitish took Modi head one, perhaps the 1st and only election where Modi lost in a direct fight. Not later, the Suicide of Rohit Vemula (after earlier death of Akhlaq of Dadri fame) , brought this govt to its knees. The PM then visited Pakistan, soon when the pro terror country and then invited the ISI to investigate the Pathankot bomb blasts. Dal prices at 230/kg did not boost the image of this government. By Jan 2016, this government was spited by most of its supporters, aside some cheerleaders.
Rise 2 - Just when the Modi government was about to plunge into abyss, the JNU Anti India protests and the anger against the Anti India communist protesters gave the Modi government, a much needed distraction, more specifically a job. The TRP channels raised stakes and helped the government cause. Modi government sensed the pulse and went for the kill, slapping charges against the criminals, flowing in the sudden wave of Nationalism. What follwoed was the decision to allow large scale surgical strikes in POK. This bold step led to another and one of the most talked about, the demonetization. Contrary to the ‘media pundits’, demonetization was not a political disaster but a political masterstroke. It created a seemingly class divide. The poor took sadistic pleasure that the rich (or atleast the corrupt ones) had no access to the money they minted. This showed in the UP Polls and every single election post demonetization. BJP either won or polled record highest votes in each of these elections. The peak was reached when Modi organically captured UP and inorganically captured Bihar and TN.
Fall 2 - In July 2017, some surveys showed NDA winning as high as 400+ seats in the 2018/19 elections. However the truth is, in just 2 months, the mood has changed drastically. One should not be surprised that if elections are held right away, BJP would struggle to cross 182, let alone 282 as it did in 2014. What changed in these 2–3 months? All of a sudden there is anger in the heartland. The rural and poor classes are disappointed, the middle class angry and Modi’s core voter base of secular and anti appeasement voters are fuming. Not surprisingly enough, except for the few cheerleaders, most people can sense this fall as they did in Jan 2016 after various blunders/failures of Modi government
I talked to quite a few people (most of who voted for BJP in 2014 and/or before).