what impact do natural disaster have on the economy of Pakistan paragrph from book
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Results showed that natural disasters turned down GDP growth 1.483 percent, Agricultural Production Growth descended 1.625 percent, and Industrial Production Growth declined 2.1 percent in the subsequently year.
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Abstract
The research is based on the natural disasters in Pakistan, and their overall impact on the economy of Pakistan. Disasters are hypothesized to have a significant effect on the GDP of Pakistan. Moreover, Pakistan is considered as a disaster prone nation due to its geographical location. Pakistan has always been likely to be affected because of floods due to monsoon rains. But looking at the recent history, Pakistan has experienced massive loss due to 2010 floods and due to the earthquake in 2005, these two being considered as the biggest disasters in Pakistan of all time. The Time-series Distributive Lag (DL) model has been used to find the model estimates. Number of people killed in disasters is taken as a proxy for disasters and it effect on economy is seen. Interaction of glacier meltdown with consumption of ozone depleting substances has been developed and is seen as a proxy cause for global warming, which ultimately results in climate change and is likely to cause natural disasters. The results suggest that natural disasters and global warming have a negative impact on the economic growth. Moreover the study focuses on the policy implications from National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) and to avoid huge losses with better mitigation plans has been incorporated and suggestions in conclusion that how can the losses from disasters be minimized. A distributed-lag model has been used for the time-series data in this study. A DL model helps to regress the dependent variable of the current time period, in accordance to the value of previous years; lags of its independent variables. Lags are considered as a substantial part of the time-series approach. The variables are lagged accordingly to check the impact and significance on the dependent variable. As one or more explanatory variables are lagged, the model becomes multivariate distributed lag model. The lag number taken to keep the variables is two; hence they are lagged for two time periods Where as in case of aid its different. All the variables used are quantified properly and for the collection of data, authentic databases have been consulted and relied upon.Natural Disasters are expected to have a Significant impact on slowing down the economic development of Pakistan.
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