What is Demographic Transition? Explain the stages of demographic transition theory with examples.
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In demography, demographic transition is a phenomenon and theory which refers to the historical shift from high birth rates and high infant death rates in societies with minimal technology, education (especially of women) and economic development, to low birth rates and low death rates in societies with advanced ...
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The theory of demographic transition is based on the actual population trends of the advanced countries of the world. According to this theory, every country passes through three diff6rent stages of population growth. In the first stage, the birth rate and the death rate are high and the growth rate of population is low. In the second stage, the birth rate remains stable but the death rate falls rapidly. As a result, the growth rate of population increases very swiftly. In the last stage, the birth rate starts falling and tends to equal the death rate. The growth rate of population is very slow. C.P. Blacker has mentioned five stages instead of three.
They are: (i) the high stationary phase marked by high fertility and mortality rates; (ii) the early expanding phase marked by high fertility and high but declining mortality; (iii) the late expanding phase with declining fertility but with mortality declining more rapidly; (iv) the low stationary phase with low fertility balanced by equally low mortality; and (v) the declining phase with low mortality, lower fertility and an excess of deaths over births. But we shall explain only the three commonly discussed stages combining Blacker’s stages (iii) and (iv) as the third stage and leaving his stage (v) which is applicable only in France. These three stages are explained in the Fig 17.4. In the figure, the time for different stages is taken on the horizontal axis and annual birth and death rates per thousand on the vertical axis. Before the 19th century in the first stage, birth rates in Western Europe were 35 per thousand and death rates fluctuated around 30 per thousand. Thus the growth rate of population was about 5 per thousand.
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In the second stage, death rates began to decline gradually from 30 per thousand to 20 per thousand from the middle of the 19th century to the end of the century. In the third stage beginning with the 20th century, birth rates began to decline from 35 per thousand and have continued so for about a century now nearing 15 per thousand. Death rates also continued to decline but seem to have stabilised between 12 to 15 per cent in Western Europe.
First Stage:
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In this stage, the country is backward and is characterised by high birth and death rates with the result that the growth rate of population is low. People mostly live in rural areas and their main occupation is agriculture which is in a state of backwardness. There are a few simple, light and small consumer goods industries. The tertiary sector consisting of transport, commerce, banking and insurance is underdeveloped. All these factors are responsible for low incomes and poverty of the masses. Large family is regarded as a necessity to augment the low family income.
Along with high birth rate, the death rate is also high due to non-nutritional food with a low caloric value, and lack of medical facilities and of any sense of cleanliness. People live in dirty and unhealthy surroundings in ill-ventilated small houses.
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As a result, they are disease-ridden and the absence of proper medical care results in large deaths. The mortality rate is the highest among the children and the next among women of child-bearing age. Thus unhygienic conditions, poor diet and the lack of medical facilities are the reasons for a high mortality rate in this stage. This stage continued in Western Europe approximately up to 1840.
Second Stage:
In the second stage, the economy enters the phase of economic growth. Agricultural and industrial productivity increases and the means of transport develop. There is greater mobility of labour. Education expands. Incomes increase. People get more and better quality food products. Medical and health facilities are expanded.
Modern drugs are used by the people. All these factors bring down the death rate. But the birth rate is almost stable. People do not have any inclination to reduce the birth of children because with economic growth employment opportunities increase and children are able to add more to the family income. With improvements in the standard of living and the dietary habits of the people, the life expectancy also increases.
Third Stage:
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In this stage, the fertility rate declines and tends to equal the death rate so that the growth rate of population declines. As growth gains momentum and people cross the subsistence level of income, their standard of living rises. The leading growth sectors expand and lead to an expansion in output in other sectors through technical transformations. All this tends to reduce the birth rate which along with an already low death rate brings a decline in the growth rate of population. The advanced countries of the world are passing through this last stage and the population is increasing at a slow pace in them.
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