what is the region for disintegration of a country
Answers
Answer:
Explanation
Several countries in the Balkans are at long-term risk of disintegration. The root cause of this is the mismatch of ethnic and political boundaries in the region, combined with the lack of a strong tradition of human and political rights, and a poisonous legacy of inter-ethnic conflict. No group wants to be a minority in what is seen as another group’s country and most have made a violent bid to separate themselves in the recent past.
For the last two decades, states such as Bosnia and Herzegovina, Macedonia, Kosovo and Serbia have held together largely due to political pressure from the West; its refusal to countenance any changes to international borders; and the enticement of membership of the EU in return for accepting the current political boundaries. In the case of Bosnia, the integrity of the state has required a permanent international presence with powers of veto over attempts by Serbs and Croats to challenge the current territorial settlement. However, none of these states is consolidated, and recent developments put the region at increasing risk. The West’s ability to impose its will on southeastern Europe is waning due to the internal crisis in the EU; Russia is shoring up its traditional Orthodox alliances in the region; and Turkey is supporting Muslim nations which hold to their maximalist positions.
Forecast
In the short term, there is unlikely to be significant movement towards disintegration. The EU and US retain sufficient coercive power to hold the region together, as evident in the hesitation of the Bosnian Serb leadership to call a referendum on independence. Instead, the region faces a period of continued stasis, characterised by a set of unresolved local frustrations that perpetuate low-level interethnic violence and economic stagnation, while avoiding a full-blown conflict.
Immediate Impacts
The persistently febrile political atmosphere across the region raises the risk of demonstrations, terrorist attacks and low-level outbreaks of violence.
Ethnically divided governments in Bosnia, Macedonia and Kosovo will struggle to implement reforms and or leverage international finance.
Private enterprises will exercise caution in making spending and investment decisions, slowing economic growth.
Potential Impacts
A bid for independence by Republika Srpska would create intense legal and political uncertainty for investors and other businesses in the country.
Political turbulence could generate spillover effects into the rest of Europe, including capital flight, outward migration and contraband.
Outside powers could be drawn into a renewed crisis in the Balkans, raising the potential costs of renewed conflict.
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