What r the changes that u observe in the primary sector over a span of 40 year
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In the primary sector, agriculture, hunting, forestry
and fishing grew slower than GDP between 1964
and 1979. After 1979 this sector’s output was more
influenced by the agricultural policy of the European
Union than by the UK business cycle. So agricultural
output grew strongly through the recession of the
early 1980's and, just as priviously, fell during
the up swing of 1994 and 1995. Within mining and
quarrying there are two very contrasting industries:
coal, which is the only industry where output has
fallen throughout the period, and the oil and gas extraction industry which grew very rapidly in the
late 1970's and early 1980's. Coal output fell by just
over half between 1964 and 1979. High real energy
prices after the 1973 and 1979 oil price ‘shocks’
improved the prospects of the coal industry, but at
the same time made feasible the rapid exploitation of
high-cost North Sea oil, which was increasingly to act
as a substitute for coal. Coal output fell by around
30% between 1979 and 1990 and then by over 90%
between 1990 and 2009 as the privatized electricity
generating companies made their ‘dash for gas’. Oil
and gas extraction had peaked at an index number of
137 in 1987 before falling to the 100 in 1990 shown in
the table (the halving of the oil price in 1986 may have
been a factor in this decline). After 1990 the offshore
oil and gas extraction industry enjoyed a remarkable
revival in which output increased by nearly 76% over
the 11 years to 2001 to register an all-time high as
new techniques enabled more oil and gas to be profitably
produced both from existing fields and also from new smaller fields which might previously have been
uneconomic. However, between 2001 and 2009 output
of the sector has fallen to only 20% higher than 1990
as problems with domestic supplies began to emerge.
In the secondary sector, 1973 is again a significant
date. Output from both manufacturing and construction
rose steadily between 1964 and 1973 (at annual
rates of 2.9% and 1.8% respectively), but between
1973 and 1979 output from both these sub sectors
actually fell, and fell still more sharply in the recession
between 1979 and 1981. Manufacturing output fell
by as much as 12.9 points or 14.2% in this recession.
The recovery after 1981 took manufacturing output
to a new peak by 1990 which was just 5.4 points
above the previous peak 17 years earlier in 1973. All
of that gain in output was then lost in the recessionary
years of 1991, 1992 and 2007. These forces left
manufacturing output in 2009 very similar to the
level of 1973. Over a period of 36 years this rate of
growth represents virtual stagnation.
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