What the methods used for population forecasting?
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THE NEED FOR FORECASTING POPULATION
In the solution of any planning problem, the planner either makes an explicit forecast, or makes some implicit assumption about the population for which he is planning. "Population" includes much more than mere numbers of people. The planner must know what kind of people live in his planning area, what types of lives they lead, and would like to lead, how long they will live, and how long they will reside in the particular area; and who will replace them when they move out or die; how many children they will have (and would like to have under different conditions), whether these children will live in the area, and many other factors.
Many communities have installed facilities which have become useless because predicated on faulty estimates of future population, or they have failed to install facilities where justified by future population. A common example of such errors is the newly constructed school in an area where the population is aging rather than being replaced by young, child-bearing families. Sewer systems have been expensively developed only to be later replaced because the population soon was double or triple what was anticipated for the area. Narrow streets have been later widened at great expense. On the other hand, land often has been overly zoned for commercial purposes in the expectation of a vast increase in population which did not materialize. Or land was zoned for potential capacities in some cities of whole state or even the entire population of the country. Prematurely subdivided land is plaguing many of our communities today.
In the solution of any planning problem, the planner either makes an explicit forecast, or makes some implicit assumption about the population for which he is planning. "Population" includes much more than mere numbers of people. The planner must know what kind of people live in his planning area, what types of lives they lead, and would like to lead, how long they will live, and how long they will reside in the particular area; and who will replace them when they move out or die; how many children they will have (and would like to have under different conditions), whether these children will live in the area, and many other factors.
Many communities have installed facilities which have become useless because predicated on faulty estimates of future population, or they have failed to install facilities where justified by future population. A common example of such errors is the newly constructed school in an area where the population is aging rather than being replaced by young, child-bearing families. Sewer systems have been expensively developed only to be later replaced because the population soon was double or triple what was anticipated for the area. Narrow streets have been later widened at great expense. On the other hand, land often has been overly zoned for commercial purposes in the expectation of a vast increase in population which did not materialize. Or land was zoned for potential capacities in some cities of whole state or even the entire population of the country. Prematurely subdivided land is plaguing many of our communities today.
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A carbon footprint is the total amount of greenhouse gases (including carbon dioxide and methane) that are generated by our actions. The average carbon footprint for a person in the United States is 16 tons, one of the highest rates in the world.
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