when will covid 3rd wave hit india
Answers
the gowernment is taking precaution.What is a wave in an epidemic?
There is no textbook definition of what constitutes a wave in an epidemic. The term is used generically to describe the rising and declining trends of infections over a prolonged period of time. The growth curve resembles the shape of a wave. Historically, the term wave used to refer to the seasonality of the disease. Several viral infections are seasonal in nature, and they recur after fixed time intervals. Infections rise and then come down, only to rise again after some time.
Covid-19 has continued relentlessly for the last one-and-a-half years, but in every geography, there have been periods of surge that have been followed by a relative lull. In India so far, there have been two very distinct periods of surge, separated by a prolonged lull.Smaller regions within a country, a state or a city, for example, would have their own waves. Delhi, for example, has so far experienced four waves. There are three very distinct peaks in its growth curve even before the current wave, while in states like Rajasthan or Madhya Pradesh, the growth curves had a much more diffused look until February, lacking a sharp peak. It would be difficult to identify distinct waves in such a situation. The third wave currently under discussion refers to a possible surge in cases at the national level. The national curve seems to have entered a declining phase now, after having peaked on May 6. In the last two weeks, the daily case count has dropped to about 2.6 lakh from the peak of 4.14 lakh, while the active cases have come down to 32.25 lakh, after touching a high of 37.45 lakh. If current trends continue, it is expected that by July, India would reach the same level of case counts as in February.
If there is a fresh surge after that, and continues for a few weeks or months, it would get classified as the third wave.
In the meantime, states could continue to experience local surges. Like it is happening in Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh right now. Or, at a more local level, in the districts of Amravati, Sangli and a few others in Maharashtra. But as long as they are not powerful enough to change the direction of the national curve, they would not be described as the third wave. Also, the more localised the surge, the quicker it is likely to get over, although cities like Mumbai and Pune have gone through prolonged surges.