write a descriptive paragraph on the uncontrollably risk of the pendamic. Use graph and othere data in support.
Answers
Abstract
Based on the official data modeling, this paper studies the transmission process of the Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). The error between the model and the official data curve is quite small. At the same time, it realized forward prediction and backward inference of the epidemic situation, and the relevant analysis help relevant countries to make decisions.
1. Introduction
At the end of 2019, the new coronavirus (COVID-19) spread widely in China, and a large number of people became infected. At present, the domestic outbreak has been effectively controlled, while the new coronavirus is spreading rapidly in other areas. Currently, Europe has become the center of the current outbreak of new pneumonia. Meanwhile, on March 11, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared a new pneumonia outbreak a "global pandemic." The new coronavirus has caused a great threat to the health and safety of people all over the world due to its amazing spreading power and potential harm. The research on the domestic and international epidemics and the future development trend has become a hot topic of current research. At present, many teams have studied the transmission law and preventive measures of the COVID-19 (Corman et al., 2020; Hui et al., 2020; Rothe et al., 2020), and many meaningful results have been obtained (Mizumoto & Chowell, 2020; Riou & Althaus, 2020; Shao & Wu, 2020).
According to the transmission characteristics of epidemic at different stages, this paper uses Gaussian distribution theory to construct a new model of coronavirus transmission. By simulating the propagation process of the COVID-19, we found that the curves of proposed model well simulate the official data curves of Hubei, Non-Hubei area of China and also South Korea, Italy, and Iran. The study points out the key factors that affect the spread of the virus, such as the basic reproduction number, virus incubation period, and daily infection number. At the same time, we predict the development trend of epidemics in different regions and infer the time of the initial cases. Furthermore, we analyzed the impact of different control times on the spread of the epidemic. Relevant models and data analysis can provide some basis and guidance for the related countries about epidemic prevention and control.
The main contributions of this paper can answer the following 11 questions and be summarized as:
✓
Epidemic situation in Hubei Province of China:
1).
When will more than 10,000 confirmed coronavirus cases be completely cured in Hubei ?
The model predicts that almost all cases will be cured before April 1 (Fig. 1).
2).
When was the earliest case in Hubei?

Download : Download high-res image (303KB)
Download : Download full-size image
Fig. 1. The comparison between the official epidemic data and simulation data of Hubei Province (The curve a - Number of simulated infections. The curve b - Number of officially confirmed infections. The curve c - Number of simulated cures. The curve d - Number of officially cures. The curve e - Number of simulated deaths. The curve f- Number of officially deaths.) There are three stages in the simulation. The first stage is before January 23, when Wuhan is not closed; the second stage is from January 23 to February 10; the third stage is after February 10, when Wuhan starts to close the community.
We find that there was already infections on November 24 (Fig. 2).
3).
How many people are infected per person (Basic reproduction number)?

Download : Download high-res image (256KB)
Download : Download full-size image
Fig. 2. Backward graph of initial epidemic curve.
It is 3.8 when not under control, 0.5 after closing Wuhan city and 0.1 after closing of Wuhan community (Fig. 3).
4).
What is the average incubation period of the virus?

Download : Download high-res image (324KB)
Download : Download full-size image
Fig. 3. Comparison of the basic reproduction number. (The basic reproduction number a = 3, b = 3.5, c = 3.7, d = 3.8, f = 3.9, g = 4.1, h = 4.6, respectively. The curve e - Number of officially confirmed infections.)