Write a note on the parameters used to describe the demographic transitions in the developing countries like india
Answers
Explanation:
Lack of a robust analytical tool for trend analysis of population and health indicators is the basic rationale of this study. In an effort to fill this gap, this study advances ‘Change-Point analyzer’ as a new analytical tool for assessment of the progress and its pattern in population and health indicators.
Methodology/Principal Findings
The defining feature of ‘change-point analyzer’ is that, it detects subtle changes that are often missed in simple trend line plots and also quantified the volume of change that is not possible in simple trend line plots. A long-term assessment of ‘change-point analyses’ of trends in population and health indicators such as IMR, Population size, TFR, and LEB in India show multiple points of critical changes. Measured change points of demographic and health trends helps in understanding the demographic transitional shifts connecting it to contextual policy shifts. Critical change-points in population and health indicators in India are associated with the evolution of structural changes in population and health policy framework.
Conclusions
This study, therefore, adds significantly to the evolutionary interpretation of critical change-points in long-term trajectories of population and health indicators vis-a-vis population and health policy shifts in India. The results have not only helped in reassessing the historical past and the current demographic transition trajectory but also advanced a new method of assessing the population and health trends which are necessary for robust monitoring of the progress in population and health policies.
Introduction
All the societies, at one time or another, move from a near-equilibrium condition of high mortality and high fertility towards a presumed low-fertility and low-mortality equilibrium termed as ‘demographic transition’ the process pioneered by Notestein [1]. Since 1950, demographic transition has occupied center stage in demographic analyses and, therefore, the progress in demographic transition need to be understood and interpreted correctly [2]. The contemporary theory of population change revolves around the concept of the classical demographic transition model enunciated by Notestein [1]. However, a perfect portrayal of demographic transition is required to investigate the impact of demographic changes on social, economic and political structures of nations. A largely acceptable characterization of demographic transition consists of five components: mortality decline, natural increase in population size, fertility decline, urbanization and population aging. For instance, the conception of a shift from a regime of negligible population growth characterized by high birth and death rates to one of equally little growth based on low birth and death rates, during which there is a rapid increase in numbers due to the demographic gap, the lag of fertility decline behind the mortality decline. Although, this conception is only a rough generalization, it has such wide applicability that it has become a central axis of conceptualization about population trends [1], [3]–[7].
Numerous studies have assessed demographic transition in terms of fertility, mortality and health trends and transition on the global scale [6], [8]–[21]. A growing number of studies in India had also assessed the trends and transition in population health indicators [5], [22]–[36]. However, all these studies have used basic trend line plots, control charts or descriptive tables with annual or decadal changes to determine transition points in population and health indicators. To our knowledge and to date, there are no studies across the globe or in India that attempted an evolutionary interpretation of long-term trends in population and health indicators through more sophisticated tools and techniques, which have properties to estimate, and determine critical change-points and multiple changes, and affirm its statistical significance.
This study adopted an innovative procedure is termed as ‘change-point analyses’ to study, the long-term trends in population and