Question

write a report on the impact of covid-19 in your locality​

Answer 1

Answer:

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Things are moving fast with the COVID-19 novel coronavirus. On March 12, the World Health Organization declared that the virus is now a pandemic and President Trump announced a 30-day ban on all travel from the EU to the U.S. One thing is sure: COVID-19 is the quintessential ‘black swan’. Two key features of black swans are that their occurrence is highly unlikely and their impact is very big, which was also the case for the 9/11 terrorist attacks in 2001 or the global financial crisis of 2008-09. This brings us to one simple question that we try to answer in this column: what is the economic impact of COVID-19 on the Indian economy? As we focus on the economic effects, we want to stress beforehand that we fully realise that there is much human suffering beneath the cold figures presented in this article.

Quantifying The Impact

Given the uncertainty about the virus and how it will continue to develop, quantifying its economic impact is far from easy. Economists all over the world are struggling to make an assessment. Nevertheless, everyone is forced to make a call on the quantitative impact, as this needs to be taken into account in the forecasts. The International Monetary Fund, for instance, stated on March 4: “In terms of our projections we, unfortunately, over the last week have seen a shift to a more adverse scenario for the global economy. We are working on updating our projections, and we will come up with those in the next weeks. ... under any scenario, we see growth in 2020 falling below the level in 2019.”

The strength of scenario analysis

In the last couple of weeks, we have conducted a scenario analysis to be able to gauge the global economic impact of COVID-19. The idea behind our scenario study is that we do not resort to top-down judgments on key parameters, but we use a set of assumptions to capture the disrupting effects that COVID-19 is causing. We made assumptions for two scenarios.