write an article on the world stand still
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The better part of diplomacy this year has been to dodge bullets and fight fires in global capitals, with Modi’s image needing a drastic makeover. The effort to convince the world that this was not some diabolical Hindu plan to turn Kashmir into Xinjiang, start a war with Pakistan or annex PoK; turn Muslims into second class citizens or stick them into detention camps has not been entirely successful. Kashmir will remain a diplomatic challenge in 2020, until a political process can be started and the unconscionable act of keeping elected politicians under detention is reversed.
Nevertheless, Modi 2.0 has come with a more aggressive, risk embracing foreign policy, as articulated by S Jaishankar, Modi’s most inspired appointment. Describing the aim of his policy as “persistent striving to expand space and options”, Jaishankar sees a “combination of greater diplomatic activity, more intensive development partnerships, stronger security engagements and growing global profile” as essential tools for a robust foreign policy palette.
Jaishankar observes, presciently, change is upon us as never before. “What defines power and determines national standing is no longer the same. Technology, connectivity and trade are at the heart of new contestations. In a more constrained and interdependent world, competition has to be pursued perforce more intelligently. The global commons is also more in disputation as multilateralism weakens”.
Risk is best played with an economic cushion, or as Jaishankar says, “the economy drives diplomacy.” India turned away from trade when it left RCEP at the altar, a decision we will rue for a long time. We negotiated in bad faith and cowardice for six years, ultimately leaving the government little choice but to back off. Frankly, it makes more sense to disband the commerce ministry, which is little more than a honey-pot for protectionists and vested business interests. Instead, we should create a separate trade negotiating office tied to MEA and MoF.
Post RCEP the operative word is “bilateral”, but with a sluggish economy and popular turmoil in the country, little movement is discernible. Brexit is about done, we should move on a trade deal with the UK and revive the EU sleeping beauty from its 2013 slumber. Hell, we can’t even get a trade deal done with our best buddy, Israel, though we’re complementary economies. A “limited” trade deal with the US is struggling to be written. We might be real close on defence and security, but the Trump administration is really interested in the trade part, which India is not........
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