write ten negative impact and ten positive impact on economic conditions of our country due to Corona virus
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There is still a great deal of uncertainty about the impacts of COVID-19 and governments’ possible responses to limit the pandemic’s human and economic effects.
recently conducted an econometric analysis to examine the paths of countries’ growth rates following a health crisis. (The crises they analyze include the 1968 Flu (aka Hong Kong Flu), SARS (2003), H1N1 (2009), MERS (2012), Ebola (2014), and Zika (2016). Authors acknowledge that COVID – 19 is more widespread than the average crisis in the sample and that the estimates are highly likely to be a lower bound for the effect of COVID-19 globally.) On average, GDP growth in affected countries is about 2.4% below that of unaffected countries. The GDP growth reduction is followed by a quick recovery with affected countries enjoying a one percentage point higher growth rate than unaffected countries in the year following the crisis. After an initial upturn during that first year, however, the economic recovery may stall and GDP growth may persistently remain lower in affected countries compared to unaffected countries.
Ma et al. (2020) also find that the decline in GDP growth is, on average, less severe in low-income countries experiencing a health crisis than it is in advanced economies experiencing a health crisis and is not statistically more severe in affected low income countries from unaffected low income countries. Moreover, they find a robust impact of fiscal policy stimulus on recovery performance. The question therefore arises whether COVID-19 might be less harrowing for developing countries than it has been for developed ones.
The socio-economic impacts of the COVID-19 crisis
Previous issues of the bulletin highlighted gloomy forecasts for key economic and social variables:
Global GDP growth: the projections for 2020 range between -8.8 per cent (WTO) and 1 per cent (UNDESA, optimistic scenario) as shown in Figure 1. Among these projections, the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) is the main reference point for assessing the economic impact of COVID-19. Accordingly, global growth will shrink by -4.2 per cent, a difference of 7 percentage points compared to the projections published before the outbreak of the crisis