write the article on COVID 19 PANDEMIC AND CELLENGES.
Answers
Background and aims
The nationwide lockdown was imposed in India following novel coronavirus pandemic. In this paper, we discuss socio-economic, health and National healthcare challenges following lockdown, with focus on population belonging to low socio-economic stratum (SES).
Methods
A literature search was conducted using PubMed and Google Scholar. In addition, existing guidelines including those by Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, Government of India, and articles from several non-academic sources (e.g. news websites etc.) were accessed.
Results
While the nationwide lockdown has resulted in financial losses and has affected all segments of society, the domino effect on health, healthcare and nutrition could possibly pose major setbacks to previously gained successes of National health programs.
Conclusion
Apart from firm economic measures, all National Health Programs should be re-strengthened to avert possible surge of communicable (apart from COVID19) and non-communicable diseases. These efforts should be focussed on population belonging to low SES.
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1. Introduction
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID19) pandemic, caused by SARS-COV2, is of unprecedented global public health concern [1]. To combat the disease, the Government of India imposed a lockdown in most districts of the 22 States and Union Territories where confirmed cases were reported from March 24, 2020 onwards. Currently, the lockdown has been extended till May 31, 2020. The Government of India has claimed success in the fight against the coronavirus pandemic, stating that the number of cases would have been more if the nationwide lockdown had not been imposed. However, this view is now being contested, as recently numbers of COVID19 cases have surged.
In this brief review, we aim to discuss the impact of the lockdown in response to the COVID 19 pandemic on social, economic, health, and National Health Programs in India.
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2. Search methodology
The literature search has been carried out by using the key terms ‘COVID19’ combined with, ‘lockdown’, ‘social’, ‘economic, ‘healthcare’, ‘diseases’, ‘National Health Programs’, ‘low socio-economic stratum’, ‘India’ from PubMed (National Library of Medicine, Bethesda, MD) and Google Scholar from January 2020 to May 2020. A manual search of the references was carried out. Articles from several non-academic sources (e.g. news websites etc.) were also accessed.
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3. The economic impact
Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth had been estimated by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) at 6.2% in 2019-20 [2]. The International Monetary Fund however, lowered India’s growth forecast by 1.3% points to 4.8% for 2019-20 and stated that India’s growth had slowed sharply [3]. It is self-evident, therefore, that an economy already affected by slow growth in the previous fiscal year would be severely affected by the lockdown as a result of the pandemic. The Small and Medium Enterprises market ratings project that the nationwide lockdown is expected to incur losses of over $4.5 billion (₹ 35,000 crores) every day during the lockdown [4]. The healthcare sector, the fourth-largest employer in the country, and specifically the private sector which provides nearly 80% of out-patient care and about 60% of in-patient care [5] is currently facing 90% losses due to decreases in out-patient attendance, elective surgeries and international patients [6].
During the current pandemic, the economic downturn has greatly affected people from the lower socio-economic stratum (SES). The distressing media visuals of migrant labourers going to their native places from the cities on foot during the lockdown has been critically debated. Remittance of money to the home country, which many migrant Indian workers popularly do, is another way of poverty reduction, economic development and increase in GDP. About $139 billion (₹ 1042500 crores) was remitted to low and middle income (LMICs) countries of South Asia from countries of work (e.g. Gulf countries) in the year 2019 [7]. The disruption caused by COVID19 has had a significant impact on these remittance flows. Importantly, remittances are projected to fall by about 23% in India in 2020 (Fig. 1 ), to $64 billion ( ₹4,80,000 crores) in striking contrast to a growth of 5.5% and receipts of $83 billion (₹ 6,20,000 crores) seen in 2019 [8]. The World Economic Forum states that in the current pandemic situation, migrants stuck abroad trying to cope with the exigencies will compromise to the adverse circumstances, by taking up low wage jobs, live in poor working conditions, restrict spending and thus, risk exposure to infections like the coronavirus [7].