You are running for office and your pollster polled hundred people. Fifthy of them claimed they will vote for you. Can you relax? (Assume that there’s only you and one other opponent)
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No
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I need more one ok
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To win an election we need atleast 51% vote to win. Here 100 people were polled and 50 of them claimed to vote for me.
- That is 50% of the total.
- Since I need 51% to win I cannot relax at the given percentage of people who claim to be on my side.
- Since there are only two competitors, my opponent also has a 50% chance.
- Some people may also change side before the election takes place.
Hence, I cannot relax with only 50% people at my side.
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