A note on life after covid-19 era
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Answer:
This virus has changed the way we are currently living in India and a lot of other places in the world – in a lockdown. More – even after the lockdown, we are not going back to life as it was.
For better or for worse, life on earth has changed, forever! There is no going back. It is not a doomsday declaration.
I, for one, believe we could create better quality of life for human beings and the rest of this living planet – if we choose to learn from Covid-19. Instead of worrying about the here and now, which a lot of people have to do anyway, let’s take a look at what comes after.
First things first – let us understand that Covid-19 will not go when the lockdown is lifted, gradually or otherwise. It will stay, lurking in some person or another, hopefully unknown to most of us, until we acquire the herd immunity we need to.
This may take two years, based on recent experience. Even after a vaccine is developed, it will take a long time to administer it to all 1.3 billion Indians, growing at net 1 per cent per annum – net.
That means 13 million souls added each year – to be vaccinated and protected. That is just this corner of the planet. What about elsewhere – from where it came in the first place?
Secondly, there could be more such viruses around the corner. SARS came in 2002 in China, spread worldwide and died down by 2004. MERS came in 2012, within 10 years from SARS, and was less virulent than SARS.
Covid-19 has come with a seven-year gap. It is more virulent than the previous two combined.
Covid-19 is a black swan event. The next pandemic, which could occur within the next three-six years, will not be one. China was where two of the last three pandemics began. It may well be the source of the next.
Third, we are likely to see a lot of changes in global economic activity. The steps that China, the US and India took last quarter, and what they and others will do through the rest of 2020, will be one key guiding factor. I have clubbed them into three broad categories below:
Protective
Globalisation of supply chains will ebb; at least in those goods and services that nations see as critical to national survival and security. New risk metrics will include country vulnerability. Geography-based or ‘friendly-nation-based’ supply chains may replace global supply chains.
Economies or contiguous economic blocks that can generate both demand and supply are likely to emerge – South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN), China+Mongolia, Russia, former USSR members, Eastern Europe, European Union, Northern Africa, Middle East (including Iran, Iraq and Afghanistan), Africa composed of three or four blocks, North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), South America in one or two blocks – composing some 15-18 blocks rather than the 190 nations we see in the United Nations today.
Answer:
As long as there is no vaccine and there is no cure, the way we engage with physical product and services will change. Many will reframe from the desire to touch or be touched. In just a few months, human contact (in large parts of the world) has become one of the most feared gestures, not to mention the unthinkable scenario being in a small room with many people.
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