Difference between percentile and probability
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Significant differences exist between interpretation of the percentile and the probability curves. Because of their similar appearance and even similar names, we take some extra time to compare and describe them. Figure 16 shows percentile and probability curves for the same set of data Mammoth weather station in Yellowstone National Park.
Percentiles are merely the result of counting where the data lie and then converting to percentages. Percentiles, by definition, always go from 0 to 100 percent. In this example, the 97th percentile of all-days is ERC = 65; that means that 3 percent of the ERC values are above 65. The 83rd percentile is 51. And 14 percent (97 83 = 14) of the ERC values are from 51 and 65 (between the 83rd and 97th percentile levels). Also, 33 percent of the fire-days occurred on days of ERC from 51 to 65. The probability that a day with ERC of 51 will be a fire-day is 20 percent; the probability of a fire-day for ERC of 65 is 30 percent. Percentile values are meaningful for index ranges, as the percentage of the days above a value, or between two values; while a probability value is given for a specific index value.
Percentiles are merely the result of counting where the data lie and then converting to percentages. Percentiles, by definition, always go from 0 to 100 percent. In this example, the 97th percentile of all-days is ERC = 65; that means that 3 percent of the ERC values are above 65. The 83rd percentile is 51. And 14 percent (97 83 = 14) of the ERC values are from 51 and 65 (between the 83rd and 97th percentile levels). Also, 33 percent of the fire-days occurred on days of ERC from 51 to 65. The probability that a day with ERC of 51 will be a fire-day is 20 percent; the probability of a fire-day for ERC of 65 is 30 percent. Percentile values are meaningful for index ranges, as the percentage of the days above a value, or between two values; while a probability value is given for a specific index value.
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