Discuss the historical perspectives of monsoon forecasting.
Answers
After decades of 'scientific guesswork', India Meteorological Department (IMD) is beginning to use supercomputer simulation-driven methods for monsoon forecasting in the last couple of years
In the middle of July 2017, roughly six weeks after the monsoon had set in, Gangabhishan Thaware, a farmer, walked into the Dindrud police station in Beed district of Marathwada with a peculiar complaint. He wanted to file an FIR against the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) for “wrong monsoon forecast".
Monsoon rains had commenced by the end of May and after a brief spell of heavy showers in early June, the sky had turned completely dry for over a month, decimating Thaware’s cotton and jowar crop. “I lost nearly ₹ 50,000 per hectare," he said. “Marathi newspapers had published the monsoon forecast, predicting good showers for two months. Why are we spending lakhs of rupees on people and satellites to make these predictions," he asked.