Question

Economics

differences and similarities in the impact of covid on sweden, the us and england​

Answer 1

Answer:

Background: There is a lack of empirical evidence that lockdowns decrease daily cases of COVID-19 and related mortality compared to herd immunity. England implemented a delayed lockdown on March 23, 2020, but Sweden did not. We aim to examine the effect of lockdown on daily COVID-19 cases and related deaths during the first 100 days post-lockdown. Methods: We compared daily cases of COVID-19 infection and related mortality in England and Sweden before and after lockdown intervention using a comparative-interrupted time series analysis. The period included was from COVID-19 pandemic onset till June 30, 2020. Results: The adjusted-rate of daily COVID-19 infections was eight cases/10,000,000 person higher in England than Sweden before lockdown order (95% CI: 2-14, P=0.01). On the day of intervention (lagged lockdown), England had 693 more COVID-19 cases/10,000,000 person compared to Sweden (95% CI: 467-920, P<0.001). Compared to the pre-intervention period, the adjusted daily confirmed cases rate decreased by 19 cases/ 10,000,000 person compared to Sweden (95% CI: 13-26, P<0.001). There was a rate excess of 1.5 daily deaths/ 10,000,000 person in England compared to Sweden pre-intervention (95% CI: 1-2, P<0.001). The increased mortality rate resulted in 50 excess deaths/ 10,000,000 person related to COVID-19 in England compared to Sweden on the day of lockdown (95% CI: 30-71, P<0.001). Post-intervention, the rate of daily deaths in England decreased by two deaths/ 10,000,000 person compared to Sweden (95% CI: 1-3, P<0.001). During phases one and two of lockdown lifting in England, there was no rebound increase in daily cases or deaths compared to Sweden. Conclusion: The lockdown order implemented in England on March 23, 2020, effectively decreased the daily new cases rate and related mortality compared to Sweden. There was no short-term increase in COVID-19 cases and related-deaths after the phases one and two of the lifting of restrictions in England compared to Sweden. This study provides empirical, comparative evidence that lockdowns slow the spread of COVID-19 in communities compared to herd immunity.