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Large parts of Europe are in a second lockdown as a new wave of infection sweeps through the continent. But overall numbers in India are falling — for reasons not yet fully clear. What is the way forward, given the cost of lockdowns?Large parts of Europe are in a second lockdown as a new wave of infection sweeps through the continent. Cases in the US are smashing new records. But overall numbers in India are falling — for reasons not yet fully clear. What is the way forward, given the cost of lockdowns? In an interview to The Indian Express, Professor Sunetra Gupta, a proponent of herd immunity, weighed in on this and related questions.
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An Expert Explains: Is lockdown the answer to another wave of Covid-19?
Large parts of Europe are in a second lockdown as a new wave of infection sweeps through the continent. But overall numbers in India are falling — for reasons not yet fully clear. What is the way forward, given the cost of lockdowns?
Written By Prabha Raghavan | New Delhi |
Updated: January 1, 2021 12:45:36 pm
A cyclist rides across an empty road junction near Les Invalides in Paris, France. (Photographer: Nathan Laine/Bloomberg)
Large parts of Europe are in a second lockdown as a new wave of infection sweeps through the continent. Cases in the US are smashing new records. But overall numbers in India are falling — for reasons not yet fully clear. What is the way forward, given the cost of lockdowns? In an interview to The Indian Express, Professor Sunetra Gupta, a proponent of herd immunity, weighed in on this and related questions.
Is there any precedent from previous pandemics that strengthen the argument for allowing naturally acquired herd immunity in Covid-19?
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When a new pathogen enters a territory where nobody has any immunity, it can cause devastation. As soon as some immunity builds up in a population, our relationship with the pathogen changes. Typically, immunity keeps the risk very low. A good recent example is of the Zika virus: it came to Brazil, there was a spate of microcephaly, and now there’s widespread population immunity — this doesn’t mean Zika has disappeared, but the risk is low.
To use the analogy of a cistern, the loss of immunity is just how leaky the system is, so you either get a lot of water draining out or more water coming in, but the level of immunity stays the same. That’s the scenario for most coronaviruses.