how india is dealing with coronavirus essay in english
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dia has reported three positive cases of a new coronavirus that has killed close to 2,800 people, mostly in neighbouring China -- where it was first detected - and infected thousands more on every continent except Antarctica. All the three Indian patients have been discharged.
The novel coronavirus is called SARS-CoV-2 and causes a disease named Covid-19. The World Health Organisation (WHO) has declared its outbreak a global emergency.
This article contains important information for Indian citizens
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India & CoronaVirus
The western city of Mumbai has among the highest number of coronavirus patients in India. With people in the city’s congested slums testing positive, it’s sparked fears that the infection could spread more rapidly. As the number of cases continue to rise in the country, India’s healthcare system is already struggling and doctors are complaining of not being given proper equipment or training on how to treat patients......
At least two weeks before novel coronavirus was declared a pandemic, Indian and international researchers had already worked out hypothetical epidemic dynamics for a potential outbreak in four Indian cities, suggesting that the disease's ability to transmit could be markedly restricted if half of symptomatic inbound passengers were quarantined at an earlier stage.
The study, published in the Indian Journal of Medical Research, relied on mathematical modelling to predict how Covid-19 could spread in Delhi, Mumbai, Bengaluru and Kolkata.
Shared by the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) on Monday, the paper had forecast varying trends in Indian cities, considering contrasting scenarios.
OPTIMISTIC SCENARIOS:-The study's optimistic scenarios evaluated the entire intervention and no-intervention spectrum in India.
1) With Intervention:- The paper, submitted by eight researchers from the ICMR and London's Imperial College/St Mary's Hospital on February 27, estimated that the overall Coronavirus incidents could reduce to 62 per cent in a city like Delhi if 50 per cent of symptomatic cases were quarantined at the start of stage one in India.
And if at least 75 per cent of asymptomatic individuals were also identified during that period, the strategy could have helped delay the within-country outbreak by an appreciable amount, the study noted.
In the optimistic scenario of intervention, the Coronavirus spread would then have peaked in 400 to 800 days, giving adequate time to the healthcare system to respond, according to the researchers.
2) Without Intervention:- In the optimistic scenario of NO intervention, Coronavirus might peak in around 300 days, with 150 in every 10,000 people complaining of symptoms, according to the study.
PESSIMISTIC SCENARIOS:-
1) With Intervention:- In the pessimistic scenario, around 1,000 of every 10,000 people would complain of symptoms in almost 50 days in a city like Delhi despite intervention, the study said. Multiple factors, including delayed detection, execution issues and social behaviours, could contribute to the spike.
2) Without Intervention:-The number of symptomatic cases in a city like Delhi was projected to cross 1,000 per 10,000 in less than 50 days if no early intervention was implemented, the study said. The health care system would then be terribly hard-pressed to treat patients and save lives in such a situation, the study warned.
DIAMOND PRINCESS MODEL:- The researchers drew what they called a Diamond Princess model to predict an outbreak in cramped neighbourhoods. Remember, the cruise ship was quarantined for almost a month off the coast of Japan because of the coronavirus outbreak onboard. The study's Diamond Princess model portrayed a closed-setting scenario, forecasting 26 per cent of infections among populations in congested neighbourhoods.
One in every 450 patients could succumb, it warned. Based on early global trends, the study estimated that five per cent of affected patients in India would need intensive care - of them, half may require mechanical ventilator support. In severe cases, one among eight to ten patients might die, the paper reported. One casualty might also occur among 40-50 non-severe Covid-19 cases, it said.
SUGGESTIONS
The researchers recommended early identification and training for frontline healthcare workers before the outbreak sets in.
Healthcare workers, it suggested, should be trained in the use of personal protective equipment, screening of asymptomatic contacts, isolation measures and management of Covid-19 cases. Emergency crews should be given health and life insurance against Covid-19.
The researchers recommended building bio-security wards as part of Coronavirus preparedness. Resources should be earmarked and adequate supplies procured before the outbreak gains momentum, they said. Public health measures should be initiated at multiple levels, including but not limited to, public messaging.