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Tropical cyclones are becoming more powerful with the most dramatic increase occurring over the North Atlantic. The increase is correlated with an increase in ocean temperature. A debate concerns the nature of this increase with some researchers attributing it to natural climate fluctuations while other researchers attributing it to anthropogenic increases in forcing from greenhouse gases. A Summit on Hurricanes and Climate Change held May 27-30, 2007 at the Aldemar Knossos Royal Village in Hersonissos, Crete brought together leading academics and researchers to discuss the issues and to address what research is needed to advance the science of hurricane climate.
The Summit was hosted by Aegean Conferences and supported by the Bermuda Institute for Ocean Sciences (BIOS) Risk Prediction Initiative and by the U.S. National Science Foundation. It was organized to provide a venue for encouraging a lively, spirited exchange of ideas. In this spirit, it was appropriate to convene at the birthplace of the Socratic method. This volume is a collection of research papers from participants of the Summit.
Tropical cyclones are typically analyzed as a passive response to climate forcing: the hurricane as a product of its environment. A warm ocean provides sustenance, a calm atmosphere nurturing, and a subtropical high-pressure cell forward direction. An increase in oceanic heat will raise a hurricane's potential intensity, yet an increase in shearing winds could counter by dispersing the heat in a fledgling storm. This perspective is useful for identifying the mechanisms responsible for making some seasons active while others inactive. A point of emphasis at the Summit was that statistical modeling is superior to data analysis (trend lines, etc) as it avoids cherry-picking the evidence and provides a framework for making use of older, less reliable data.