Question

Imagine that you are taking part in a study to test a new cold medicine. Although you don't know exactly what drug you are taking, the probability that it is drug A is 30%, that it is drug B is 10%, and that it is drug C, 60%. From past clinical trials, the probabilities that these drugs will improve your condition are: A 20%, B 50% and C 70%

Answer 1

Suppose, A is the event that person A wrote the exam.

Suppose, B is the event that person B wrote the exam.

Suppose, C is the event that person U wrote the exam.

Therefore,

Now, if D is the event that there is a question on the international relations.

Therefore, probability that question on the international relations is by person U is

The probability that question on the international relations is by person B is

The probability that question on the international relations is by person A is

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