Is lockdown a solution to combat coronavirus? discuss?
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Answer:
yes lockdown solution to combat coronavirus
Answer:
hope this helps u c=and have a nice day : )
If social distancing remains protracted, large parts of the economy would shut down. There would be a huge cost. To avoid this cost, should India as a nation try another strategy? Take the risk of allowing the epidemic to spread and treating those who fall ill? After all, only about a fifth of those who fall ill require hospitalisation and about 5% of those who catch the infection develop symptoms severe enough to require care in an Intensive Care Unit. India accounts for 27% of the world’s tuberculosis patients, of whom 1.5 million die every year. If India claims its fair share, we lose about 400,000 to TB every year. We allow diarrhoea and pneumonia to claim over two lakh lives every year. Annually, road accidents kill 150,000. Another 10,000 die of electrocution. So is a Covid19 toll a bearable risk for India?
Can India afford to take the route of avoiding economic lockdown and treating those who get affected? Let us assume that unlike the Spanish Flu, Covid19 would afflict only about 10% of the population without tough social distancing measures that involve protracted lockdowns of towns and severe disruption of the economy. That would mean 0.5% of the population would require ICU care. India’s population is upwards of 1,300 million. The number of ICU beds that Covid19 would claim would be 6.5 million. Assume a patient has to stay in for two weeks and the epidemic would stretch out over eight fortnights. India would still require over eight lakh ICU beds, just to treat Covid19 patients. India currently has fewer than one lakh such beds (the latest figure I could spot was 70,000). For India to attempt any strategy other than to suppress and contain the disease is to let at least 5.5 million people die.
The Spanish flu was unique in that it was most deadly for the young, aged 20-40. Conventional flu poses the biggest threat to the elderly and the very young. Covid19 tends to spare children, yield to youthful vigour and settle for the elderly and those with underlying conditions. The median age for Italy’s Covid19 victims is over 80.
India is full of people with underlying conditions. It is the world’s tuberculosis capital. About 5% of the population is diabetic, which means all their organs are less than robust. A large proportion of children are malnourished and even women in affluent families are anaemic. The death rate in India could be higher than in other parts of the world. It could be higher than even 5.5 million.
The US currently has 70,000 ICU beds, for a population of 330 million, reportedly with a third lying empty at any given point of time. If 5% of the population fall ill without severe restrictions that would squeeze economic activity, the Americans would need a little over 100,000 ICU beds to treat Covid19 patients alone. So, if they double their existing number of ICU beds, the Americans could actually afford to adopt a strategy that focuses on treatment rather than suppression and containment of the disease via lockdowns that cripple the economy.