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Tom is throwing darts at a target. In his last 30 throws, Tom has hit the target 20 times. You want to know the estimated probability that exactly one out of the next three throws does not hit the target.
Categorize the simulations as correct or incorrect simulations of Tom’s scenario.
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P( miss bull’s-eyes in each of n throws ) = 0.95n
=⇒ P( hit bull’s-eyes at least once in n throws ) = 1 − 0.95n.
So he should throw at least n ∗ = − log 2 log 0.95 times to have probability 1 2 to hit bull’s eye at least once.
Since n is an integer, he needs at 14 throws
=⇒ P( hit bull’s-eyes at least once in n throws ) = 1 − 0.95n.
So he should throw at least n ∗ = − log 2 log 0.95 times to have probability 1 2 to hit bull’s eye at least once.
Since n is an integer, he needs at 14 throws
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