Short note on agricultural expansion history
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Agricultural expansion describes the growth of agricultural land (arable land, pastures, etc.) in the 21st century as a direct consequence of human overpopulation with an estimated 10 to 11 billion humans by end of this century and the required food and energy security. It is foreseen that most nonagricultural terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems of the world will be affected adversely (habitat loss, land degradation). The intensified food and biofuel production will particularly affect tropical regions.
Most modern agriculture relies on intensive methods. Further expansion of the predominant farming types that rest on a small number of highly productive crops has led to a significant loss of biodiversity on a global scale already.[1] In the light of the already occurring and potential massive ecological effects, the need for sustainable practices is more urgent than ever.
The FAO predicts that global arable land use will continue to grow from a 1.58 billion hectares (3.9×109 acres) in 2014 to 1.66 billion hectares (4.1×109 acres) in 2050, with most of this growth projected to result from developing countries. At the same time, arable land use in developed countries is likely to continue its decline.[2]
A well-known example of already ongoing agricultural expansion is the proliferation of palm oil production areas or the land conversion/deforestation for soy bean production in South America. Today's land grabbing activities are often a consequence of the strive for agricultural land by growing economies.[3]