Taking drastic measures to limit the transmission rate of Covid-19, like closing schools, cancelling public events, and sending people home from work, may seem like an overreaction when few people in a city or state are infected. However, early in the outbreak is exactly when such measures are most effective. A model created showing the difference even one day of social distancing can make in reducing the burden of cases. Vox has recreated the chart shown below (note that this is based on a theoretical model and not actual reported figures). An extra day of social distancing can greatly reduce the spread of Virus.
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Answer:High profile international sporting events such as the Olympics or World Cups as well as international religious events such as the Hajj count as mass gatherings. However, lower profile conferences and events can also meet WHO’s definition of a mass gathering. An event counts as a “mass gatherings” if the number of people it brings together is so large that it has the potential to strain the planning and response resources of the health system in the community where it takes place. You need to consider the location and duration of the event as well as the number of participants. For example, if the event takes place over several days in a small island state where the capacity of the health system is quite limited then even an event with just a few thousand participants could place a big strain on the health system and then be considered a “mass gathering” event. Conversely, if the event is held in a big city in a country with a large, well-resourced health system and lasts just a few hours, the event may not constitute a “mass gathering” event.
For countries not currently known to be experiencing community transmission of COVID-19, the priority consideration will be whether the planned mass gathering event substantially increases the risk of the virus entering the country and becoming established, as well as the risk for participants to importing infection back to their home country and further increasing global spread. In making this assessment, the organizers and their national or local health authorities should recognize that the risk of imported cases of COVID-19 is naturally linked to international travel. They should also recognize that it is neither realistic or desirable to aim for zero risk. When organizers and health authorities are determining whether to hold a mass gathering, they should determine what is an acceptable risk and what additional measures should be implemented to mitigate the risks.
For countries where COVID-19 has already started to spread in the community, key consideration will be:
aiming at containing or at least slowing down the spread of the virus in the local community/country.
preventing participants from other countries being infected with COVID-19
In each case the risk should be considered in the context of the known features of COVID-19, its severity, its transmissibility and the effectiveness of measures to prevent or reduce transmission. The strain already placed on the local health system in responding to COVID-19 outbreak(s), and the additional strain the mass gathering might place on the system also need to be taken into account.
You can find more advice on what to look at in the WHO document Key planning recommendations for Mass Gatherings in the context of the current COVID-19 outbreak of 14 February 2020.
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