Question

The economic condition of east,south and Southwest Asia is different.

Answer 1

East and Southeast Asia—the world’s most ethno-culturally diverse region and the most likely to grow in economic importance—will remain center stage for both economic cooperation and geopolitical competition in the near future. For China, many factors are increasing political uncertainty: a slowing economy; Beijing’s attempt to advance its primacy in Asia; a shrinking labor force as a result of population aging; and President Xi’s concentration of power. This uncertainty casts a shadow over the peace and prosperity of the region, since China is deeply integrated into the global economy and anchors the region economically but also selectively embraces and seeks to shape international norms and rules to advance its interests. China’s assertions of sovereignty on issues such as the South China Sea are provoking reactions among its neighbors and stirring nationalist sentiment at home that could reduce Beijing’s room for maneuver. The interplay between security competition, regime stability, and economic cooperation will color most regional interactions, with middle powers and smaller states alike seeking assurances against Chinese assertiveness that will not sacrifice economic opportunities with China; the risk of a less-robust Chinese economy is a further complication. The actions of the United States and Japan vis-à-vis China, as well as those of emerging powers like India and Indonesia, will also shape the assessment of risks and opportunities by countries in the region.

Answer 2

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East and Southeast Asia—the world’s most ethno-culturally diverse region and the most likely to grow in economic importance—will remain center stage for both economic cooperation and geopolitical competition in the near future. For China, many factors are increasing political uncertainty: a slowing economy; Beijing’s attempt to advance its primacy in Asia; a shrinking labor force as a result of population aging; and President Xi’s concentration of power. This uncertainty casts a shadow over the peace and prosperity of the region, since China is deeply integrated into the global economy and anchors the region economically but also selectively embraces and seeks to shape international norms and rules to advance its interests. China’s assertions of sovereignty on issues such as the South China Sea are provoking reactions among its neighbors and stirring nationalist sentiment at home that could reduce Beijing’s room for maneuver. The interplay between security competition, regime stability, and economic cooperation will color most regional interactions, with middle powers and smaller states alike seeking assurances against Chinese assertiveness that will not sacrifice economic opportunities with China; the risk of a less-robust Chinese economy is a further complication. The actions of the United States and Japan vis-à-vis China, as well as those of emerging powers like India and Indonesia, will also shape the assessment of risks and opportunities by countries in the region.

Increasingly self-reliant Japan will take on more international engagement—potentially increasing its involvement in regional and global security affairs and becoming a stronger partner of the United States—initially by building on its robust economic relations, especially in Southeast Asia. The growing uncertainty in East Asia—driven primarily by China’s growing power and assertiveness—is prompting Tokyo to ease postwar constraints on its security policies and build capacity for a policy of collective self-defense.

India is likely to insert itself further into East and Southeast Asian economic and security matters, especially if its relationship with Japan continues to strengthen. China’s ambitions and disregard for India’s interests fuel New Delhi’s inclination—along with Japan and the United States—to balance and hedge. Although rising Western concern about free trade is limiting the options, a Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP)-like agreement that included India could turn India into an economic wildcard, potentially deepening its economic integration with the United States and other major Pacific economies, helping to propel domestic economic reform and growth, and bolstering India’s ability to take a more assertive regional economic role.

Indonesia has the world’s largest Muslim population and some of the world’s greatest biodiversity, and it could take on a global role by anchoring Islam’s response to the influence of globalized terrorist networks or by leading stewardship of the world’s remaining primary forests, even as it continues to grapple with the challenge of effectively governing a far-flung archipelago. Burning in Indonesian forests contributes to global carbon emissions as well as air pollution and rising death rates from bronchial disease across Southeast Asia. In Malaysia, shifts in racial and religious policies in the democratic, majority Malay Muslim country could have implications for the region’s democratization and social stability trends and could help boost global counter-radicalization efforts. Malaysia and Indonesia, like other Muslim states, face the influence of increasingly intolerant Salafist Islam on traditional Sufi Islamic practices, fueling tension in their multiethnic and multireligious societies. Thailand and the Philippines are struggling with governance issues resulting in emerging preferences for strongman rule.

Major economic shifts, demographic changes, and urban stresses—driven by ongoing migration to cities—are likely to become more significant in Asian countries in the next five years and will demand political responses. Aging populations will add to the demands on Asian healthcare systems to confront chronic diseases, adding to governments’ funding needs. Economic inequality could boost public dissatisfaction in China and elsewhere in the region, particularly as firms face greater pressure from low-cost competitors in the region and elsewhere. Beijing will face pressure to meet the aspirations and demands of its growing middle and affluent classes or to manage their disappointment.

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