trading a green path towards preservation
Answers
Despite the poor outlook for the Earth’s climate, putting in place acceptable solutions is proving difficult. Mired in economic uncertainty, some countries are scaling back climate change efforts. But the economy and environment needn’t be opposed: our actions on climate change could see a shift towards a growing green economy.
The European Union has been a world leader in mitigation, and has adopted a road map to reduce emissions by 80-95% by 2050. But it is consumed by recession, debt and the viability of the Euro zone.
In Washington, climate change is now off the agenda, at least until 2013 (after the 2012 presidential election) although initiatives continue in some states such as California.
In China the battle is well and truly joined between the old industrial economy and the new clean tech, services-oriented economy, but the outcome is far from clear.
At present China leads the world in both directions. Emissions are still growing very strongly (at about 6-7% per annum) but China is being very aggressive in terms of policies to develop clean technologies and prepare for the low-carbon economy. How and when the balance will shift remains uncertain.
In Australia the government has published an exposure draft of a new set of Clean Energy Bills to introduce a carbon price in July 2012, and will soon introduce them into Parliament. The bills are unpopular, with the Opposition committed to repealing them at the next election. And the economic context is difficult, both in terms of rising utility prices and a slowing economy.
It is important to keep in mind the central reality of climate change: the world must reduce emissions sharply over the next few decades.
Achieving this will require a fundamental re-engineering of the world economy. We need revolutionary change in transport, building and other technologies to drive energy efficiency and the take-up of renewable fuels, and to reset the balance between goods and welfare-enhancing (and non-polluting) services such as health and education.
Such a transformation is comparable in its own way to the original Industrial Revolution, and will, if it occurs, drive rapid growth. Not the old emissions-intensive growth, but low-carbon growth better directed at meeting human needs.
The question, of course, is about getting there, about finding the path to this era of green growth. Each country faces this challenge, although the problems to be addressed vary. Many, such as China and some countries in Europe, recognise the potential of the low-carbon economy, and are determined to be leaders.