what is the chance of homo sapiens will survive till next 500 years
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We’ve really done it this year. Like an insatiable glutton, the law of averages has come home to roost. We should’ve taken the hint when on the 1st of January, 66 people lost their lives in the Jakarta floods. What followed was like the highlights reel of a disaster movie franchise – a volcanic eruption in The Philippines, irrepressible bushfires in Australia, earthquakes in Russia, Iran, Turkey, India, and China. And speaking of China.
2020 has brought home the fragile mortality of the human race into sharp focus. As global Covid-19 deaths stoutly push past the grim 1 million marks, we have no choice but to question our place in the universe – are we the all-conquering masters of our domain, or mere tourists in a ruthlessly apathetic ecosystem? Is the human race on the ubiquitous three-part literary arc that defines every story, every life, every civilization – ascent, apex, and descent? Maybe when Michael Jackson unveiled his moonwalk in 1983, or when Barack Obama stepped into the White House as President of the United States in 2008, or indeed when MS Dhoni lifted the Cricket World Cup in 2011, we peaked, as a species, and everything since then has been a steady unraveling.
500 years is a long time. For context, the world population in 1500 AD was a mere 461 million. The 16-fold explosion since then is unprecedented in history, but we might just be at the tip of an iceberg. Though fertility rates are dropping and more and more people are foregoing the chance to have babies, we might just have crossed the threshold – the population projections for the year 2050 is 9.8 billion, and for 2100 is a whopping 11.2 billion1. Somewhere out there, Malthus is cackling in his grave. The year 2500 suddenly seems a long way off, and this conversation seems ever-more pertinent today. The Bulletin of Atomic Scientists is not optimistic – the famed Doomsday Clock they maintain is the closest to ‘midnight’ (our proximity to global catastrophe), since its inception in 1947. Global warming? Check. The threat of nuclear war? Check. Ongoing pandemic? Check, check, check.
And yet, hope floats, for three reasons. Mankind may just have its back to the wall right now, but there are three shoots of potential that might just help us make it to 2500 AD – the advent of a basket of disruptive technologies (artificial intelligence, bio-enhancement, genetic engineering), the private sector focus on space exploration and terraforming, and good old fashioned human resilience. While the first two factors will no doubt be critical to human survival, it is the third one that we must pin our hopes on – our long-demonstrated history of surviving whatever nature, the universe, or our own self-destructive tendency, throws our way.
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