write an anylitical paragraph on covid 19 in India.Plzz help me
Answers
Answer:
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Explanation:
In January 2020, when the news of a few cases of viral pneumonic illness in an obscure Chinese city appeared in the papers, few in India could have foreseen the course of the next few months. Progressing from a solitary case in Kerala, at India’s southern tip, on January 30, 2020, the virus has inexorably taken its toll, affecting over 46,000 people in different states, with almost 1,500 deaths as of May 5, 2020.
When the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the novel coronavirus outbreak to be a pandemic on March 11, 2020, it also appealed to the world to take preventive measures to diagnose active cases, isolate them with their primary contacts, and ensure timely treatment of severe infection.
In India, the first case was a student who had returned from Wuhan. A returnee from Italy followed this, and then an Italian tourist party with their guide was detected to be positive in Rajasthan. Subsequently, the number of cases went up all over India, though gradually as first, as is the want of this virus.
Maharashtra and New Delhi had the highest number of cases as of March 14, at 14 and 7 cases, respectively. Currently, the totals here are almost 12,300 and 4,100, respectively, but Gujarat has overtaken Delhi with over 5,000 cases at present.
As the virus tore through Wuhan and the surrounding regions of China, leaving its trail of disease and death, the government of India announced a series of rapid-fire restrictions.
These began with shutting down international flights, quickly progressed through social distancing measures, and shutting down all public transport (buses, trains, and flights) to the declaration of a lockdown at the national level on March 24, 2020.
Why India needed a lockdown
The rationale behind such comprehensive and apparently impulsive moves is simple: India has a massive population of 1.35 billion, with inadequate tertiary healthcare coverage and limited infrastructural health resources. This leaves it open to a much higher risk of rapid and overwhelming spread of the infection than most other developed countries.
The government of India needs the full cooperation of its people, therefore, to contain the community spread of the virus, by informing them of the real risks of the situation and securing their willing compliance with quarantine and social distancing measures. These are aimed at slowing person-to-person spread.How was the current study done?
The current study is an epidemiological attempt to model the outcome of these measures using the right mathematical models. Existing research suggests that pandemics typically show an exponential pattern of growth at the beginning, but then flatten out.In this study, the different models used by researchers to predict how the case infection rate increases are evaluated.
Exponential phase
In the first phase, the exponential model is useful as it reflects the spread of the virus, using a J-shaped curve. This model does not predict the downward phase or decay of the curve and the plateau phase.
The current phase of the pandemic in India, according to this study, is the second phase, where exponential growth has given way to steady growth. This type of increase in cases cannot, therefore, be predicted by the exponential model.
Logistic model
This model predicts the course of disease spread in the presence of constraints, such as the restrictions placed on the mobility of people, medical facilities dedicated to the care of COVID-19 patients, and total lockdown conditions. This leads to a change in the number of people classified as susceptible to infection because of the isolation imposed under these conditions. The change in the number of infected people is calculated correspondingly.
SEIR Model
SEIR refers to the adaptation of a popular paradigm used to predict the growth of a population or the spread of a disease, namely, ‘Susceptible-Infectious-Removed’ (SIR). In pandemics, this is modified; namely, the ‘Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed’ (SEIR) model, to ensure greater accuracy since it includes a lot of factors that influence the growth rate due to the virus spread.
Taking into account the actions taken by the government to limit the spread, the researchers have come up with an equation to predict the outcome in terms of the caseload.
The number of confirmed cases was obtained from the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare (MOHFW) and COVID-19 websites, beginning from March 5, 2020, which marked the first day of the lockdown, to April 23, 2020. The researchers then projected the pattern of spread over the next 42 days, beginning from the end of the second phase of the lockdown, that is, May 2, 2020, to June 14, 2020, adjusting for the impact of government interventions.