Question

A drilling company has estimated a 40% chance of striking oil for their new well. A detailed test has been scheduled for more information. Historically, 60% of successful wells have had detailed tests, and 20% of unsuccessful wells have had detailed tests. Given that this well has been scheduled for a detailed test, what is the probability that the well be successful?

Answer 1

Answer:

.67

given

P(s)= 4/10

p(DT/S)=6/10

P(DT/ S') = 2/10

construct a confusion matrix

S. S'. Total

DT 24 12 36

DT'. 16 48 64

Total. 40 60

so P(S/DT)= 24/36 = 0.67