Science, asked by khiankhiss19, 1 year ago

What is the reflection,content,application,experience of the probability!!

Answers

Answered by shekhar73
2

Of the myriad risks surrounding long-term investments in power plants, resource risk is one of the most

difficult to mitigate, and is also perhaps the risk that most-clearly distinguishes renewable generation

from natural gas-fired generation. For renewable generators like wind and solar projects, resource risk

manifests as a quantity risk—i.e., the risk that the quantity of wind and insolation will be less than

expected.i

For gas-fired generators (i.e., a combined-cycle gas turbine or “CCGT”), resource risk

manifests primarily as a price risk—i.e., the risk that natural gas will cost more than expected. Most

often, resource risk—and natural gas price risk in particular—falls disproportionately on utility

ratepayers, who are typically not well-equipped to manage this risk. As such, it is incumbent upon

utilities, regulators, and policymakers to ensure that resource risk is taken into consideration when

making or approving resource decisions, or enacting policies that influence the development of the

electricity sector more broadly.

This paper presents a new framework, grounded in statistical concepts related to probability of

exceedance (and confidence intervals more broadly), to incorporate resource risk into decision-making

processes. This framework recognizes that the same probability of exceedance concepts that are

regularly used to characterize the uncertainty around annual energy production for wind and solar

projects can also be applied to natural gas price projections, allowing one to develop a probabilistic

range of projections for not only wind and solar capacity factors, but also natural gas prices

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